Dismal November air cargo data has all but assured a weak end to 2022 with no sign of a seasonal uplift in demand or rate levels from an oversupplied market.
Topic: No seasonal uplift as air cargo market deteriorates further
Compared with record-high air cargo rates and demand on routes out of Asia during a strong November last year, the air freight peak season of 2022 would have required something exceptional to even come close.
But with weakening economies, fast-rising inflation, consumers reluctant to spend, and high inventory levels in destination markets, air freight is turning in a dismal performance with analysts reporting no sign of a seasonal uplift in volume or rates.
“Global air cargo tonnages have continued to slide downwards in November, normally a buoyant month in the air freight calendar, with a further steep decline in the last full week led by falling volumes to and from North America,” Netherlands-based analyst WorldACD wrote in a market update Friday.
WorldACD data shows air cargo volume from Asia, measured in chargeable weight, was down 29 percent in November year over year, outstripping a capacity decline of 11 percent.
With demand weakening and belly cargo capacity returning with the steady recovery of passenger flight schedules in and out of Asia, the oversupplied market environment is dragging down rates.
By the last week in November, average spot rates from Shanghai to North America were 2.5 times lower year over year at $5.75 per kilogram; Shanghai-North Europe air cargo rates were down 31 percent at $5.00/kg, according to the Baltic Air Index (BAI).
“We have seen a decided lack of peak season manifested in volumes and rates,” Bruce Chan, director and senior analyst at global bank Stifel, said in a research note Friday. “In November, we continued to see sequential deceleration from mid-year dollars per kg levels out of Asia. Shanghai to North America declined 10 percent from October, while Hong Kong to North America was down around 4 percent versus the same period.
“Europe-destined lanes were a bit more resilient, with Shanghai origin down 5 percent relative to October, and Hong Kong origin down 3 percent,” Chan added.
Global market weakness
Comparing the global market with this time last year, WorldACD noted that overall chargeable weight in the last two weeks of November was down 18 percent compared with the equivalent period in 2021, while capacity was up 1 percent.
Global air cargo rates are currently down 25 percent year over year at an average of $3.33/kg, despite the effects of higher fuel surcharges, but they remain significantly above pre-pandemic levels.
A report by the TAC Index, described as the calculating agent for the Baltic Air Index, noted Friday that recent gains in equity markets, particularly in Europe following weakening in the price of natural gas, have raised some hopes that the decline in pricing may be coming to end.
But the report immediately tempered those hopes by highlighting renewed lockdowns in China that have raised fears supply chains will be further disrupted, calling recent protests in major cities “a further cause for concern.”
It was a point also made by Chan in his research note. He said the COVID-related shutdowns that continue to occur across China were affecting trans-Pacific air cargo flows.
“An interesting artifact of Chinese COVID-19 restrictions is that they weigh on oil demand, thus helping to subdue higher fuel prices in the face of OPEC production cuts,” Chan wrote. “If and when Chinese lockdowns subside, oil demand will likely increase, driving up fuel surcharges and thus putting upward pressure on rates next year, all else equal.”
Yet another negative factor for air cargo markets was the strong US dollar. The International Air Transport Association (IATA) said in its latest monthly cargo update this week that the sharp appreciation of the dollar was having a significant impact on air freight. Most of the industry costs are denominated in dollars, and that is adding another layer of cost on top of high inflation and jet fuel prices.
“As 2022 closes out it appears that the current economic uncertainties will follow into the New Year and need continued close monitoring,” Willie Walsh, director general of IATA, noted in the report.